HEIM Analysis File – FY16 Q6 – https://doc.co/wybkYA
In the foreseeable future, I think HEIM won’t have significant catalysts to boost up its growth. Having said that, HEIM will still be able to achieve steady performance even if alcoholic beverage industry is a highly regulated industry, and also faces contrabands issues. At 17.98, valuation of HEIM is not bad where I believe its fair value range from 17.9 to 20. Besides, if you buy HEIM now, dividend yield is less than 4% (excluding special dividends).
As of now, I won’t consider to accumulate HEIM, but to hold it for >6.5% dividend yield based on my average costs.
There is one slight issue in my analysis file, but the issue doesn’t impact valuation very much. In its Cash Flow Statement, you can easily spot one item called “Amortisation of prepaid contractual promotion expenses”. In the footnote (AR 2016, page 129, Note 7.2), HEIM stated:
“Included in prepayments of the Group are prepaid contractual promotion expenses for promotional activities of RM43,531,000 (30.6.2015: RM49,015,000) of which RM20,125,000 (30.6.2015: RM26,218,000) are to be amortised over a period of more than 12 months. The prepaid contractual promotion expenses are made to the Group’s distribution channels to carry out promotional activities specified in the contract. The amount is amortised to profit or loss based on the volume purchased by outlets from the distributors or the time period as stipulated in the contract.”
Unfortunately, HEIM didn’t disclose how they allocate “prepaid contractual promotion expenses for promotional activities“, and how they amortised the expenses based on the volume purchased. Thus, there is no way for me to make projection. Although the figures were quite large, it didn’t impact valuation significantly.
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