VITROX Analysis File – http://wp.me/a17Hxk-2Iw
I sold off my VITROX shares in May 2015 at around 3.6-3.7 as I didn’t expect 46% revenue growth in FY16. As of 14 Jul 2017, VITROX share price was at 7.78 (before issue bonus 1:1). Hindsight is always 20/20, so I won’t regret my action.
Moving forward, I still bet on good growth drivers in VITROX business as Global Sales Report 2017 by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics shows positive outlook in the Semiconductor industry. The uptrend market outlook in the semiconductor and electronics assembly manufacturing sectors in the next 2-3 years coupled with ViTrox’s strong line-up of innovative, advanced and cost effective machine vision inspection products, and dedicated sales channel partners worldwide, ViTrox is well positioned to capture bigger market shares in both sectors in the next few years.
To be conservative, I don’t project 30%-50% revenue growth in VITROX business, but approx. +17% and +6% growth rate for FY17 and FY18 respectively. With this assumption, fair value of VITROX range from 7.1 to 8.1 (after 1:1 bonus issue, around 3.3 to 4.05). In my opinion, as of 21 Jul 2017, at RM4.00, I believe investors has already factored in its growth drivers. Thus, VITROX is fully valued.
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